And More Poll Numbers

[bcholmes]

Here are numbers for Ontario and Toronto, from CTV. This data is about 2 days old:

• Conservatives: 39%
• Liberals: 33%
• NDP: 20%
• Greens: 8%

And here's Toronto:

• Liberals: 42%
• Conservatives: 35%
• NDP: 17%
• Greens: 6%

I'm a bit disappointed in the NDP showing for Toronto, but otherwise, this doesn't surprise me a great deal. Ontario is still a battleground (although it's looking likely that they'll take some of the 905 ridings).

Having said all that, CTV (like other media outlets) says that a Conservative majority is quite possible.

Now compare the more recent Ontario data:

Party	Now	Previous
Liberals	40	33
Conservatives	33	39
NDP	20	20
Green	7	8

Conservatives are definitely dipping. I seriously wonder if people are really scared of the idea of a Conservative majority.

Comments

[elissaann.livejournal.com]

I don't see how 35% can turn into 51% by Monday. Am I missing something?

[bcholmes.livejournal.com]

The poll numbers are "people who will vote for the Conservatives", not "number of seats that the Conservatives will take".

The distribution of numbers suggest which ridings the Conservatives will win in (for example, I don't think they'll win anything in Toronto). And it looks like they have a shot at winning a majority of ridings.

[the-nita.livejournal.com]

Conservatives are definitely dipping. I seriously wonder if people are really scared of the idea of a Conservative majority.

That and the 16th is when Harper shot his mouth off for the first time and really tweaked a bunch of people.

[(Anonymous)]

The NDP always suffer because a lot of people (including some otherwise very bright ones) believe that in a riding where Liberals get the most votes, NDP second most & Tories 3rd, voting Liberal will reduces the likelihood of the Tories winning the general election.

That is the main reason why I believe the first past the post system sucks.

[the_axel]

That was me, fwiw.

[bcholmes.livejournal.com]

I take your point, totally. There is a snarky side of me, however, that thinks that the NDP could, if they really wanted, design a campaign around that very truth.

[trema-slo.livejournal.com]

Almost no coverage whatsoever here in small town US.

I loved going to Canada. It's like a different country. The folks, well, are folks. Time magazine had a Canadian issue at that time. The news was almost indigestable it was so different than what one's used to down here. Practically had to crack a dictionary just to read Canadian. Now that's the purpose behind the border, no? To keep us all thinking we are separate yet equal. Best wishes for your election! Enough for now.

T.L.