Minority Government Math

[bcholmes]

If the Conservatives decide to try to force a vote of non-confidence (which current polls suggest that Canadians don't want), here are the numbers of voting members:

Confidence				Non-Confidence
Liberals	131		99	Conservatives
NDP	19		54	BQ
Independents	3
Sub-total	153		153	Sub-total

So a vote would probably hinge on those 3 Independents. One of whom is Carolyn Parrish, the MP who feels that Paul Martin is a big meanie, and who was kicked out of the Liberal party for saying unkind things about the leadership of the Liberal party (and, possibly, for saying unkind things about a certain leader of a nearby foreign country). Also, one of those members is David Kilgour, who gave up his Liberal membership days ago.

But, hey, let's say Parrish and Kilgour decide that keeping parliament together is better for their careers. So we get a tie and the Speaker of the House (a Liberal) gets to break the tie.

The only thing stopping this from happening is opinion polls: will the Canadian electorate resent having to go through an election again, and if so, will they punish the Conservatives at the voting table?

Comments

[lovecraftienne.livejournal.com]

Geebus, I hope so. The last thing we need is another flippin' election.

Traditionally, btw, the Speaker, whatever party they're from, votes for the status quo in a tied non-confidence vote. It's unseemly for the Speaker to cause the dissolution of Parliament.

[didactic-cudgel.livejournal.com]

Didn't you just have an election? Or were you near to having a dissolution of Parliament that didn't happen?

[thespian.livejournal.com]

hasn't happened yet.

will likely happen soon. commentators are guessing it will be forced by May 16th, right now.

[bcholmes.livejournal.com]

We had an election last year. The result was an extremely precarious minority government.

In the parliamentary system, there are certain types of votes -- non-confidence votes -- that basically result in the end of Parliament. What they mean is that the government (that is, the cabinet) has lost the ability to control parliament and thus can no longer govern.

The Conservatives are threatening to introduce a non-confidence motion. Because the balance of power in parliament is so precarious, it really could go any way.

[kat-chan.livejournal.com]

What ill could Carolyn Parrish have possibly spoken about Vlad Putin? Or was it Jacque Chirac? After all, we all know that Canucks LURVE Amerikuns! ;)

[futabachan.livejournal.com]

Um, but isn't the third independent a former Alliance person from B.C. who didn't join the new-style Conservatives because they weren't conservative enough? I can't really see him voting to save Paul Martin's behind....