Minority Government Math

[bcholmes]

If the Conservatives decide to try to force a vote of non-confidence (which current polls suggest that Canadians don't want), here are the numbers of voting members:

Confidence				Non-Confidence
Liberals	131		99	Conservatives
NDP	19		54	BQ
Independents	3
Sub-total	153		153	Sub-total

So a vote would probably hinge on those 3 Independents. One of whom is Carolyn Parrish, the MP who feels that Paul Martin is a big meanie, and who was kicked out of the Liberal party for saying unkind things about the leadership of the Liberal party (and, possibly, for saying unkind things about a certain leader of a nearby foreign country). Also, one of those members is David Kilgour, who gave up his Liberal membership days ago.

But, hey, let's say Parrish and Kilgour decide that keeping parliament together is better for their careers. So we get a tie and the Speaker of the House (a Liberal) gets to break the tie.

The only thing stopping this from happening is opinion polls: will the Canadian electorate resent having to go through an election again, and if so, will they punish the Conservatives at the voting table?