Cholera estimates: Gross Underestimation

[bcholmes]

In the three months between October and December 2010, about 150,000 people in Haiti contracted cholera and about 3,500 died.

Around this time, the United Nations projected that the total number infected would likely rise to 400,000.

But researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, say this is a gross underestimate.

They believe the toll could reach 779,000, with 11,100 deaths by the end of November 2011.

Dr Sanjay Basu and colleagues reached their figures using data from Haiti's ministry of health.

They say the UN estimates were "crude" and based on "a simple assumption" that the disease would infect a set portion (2-4%) of Haiti's 10 million population.

Dr Basu's calculations take into account factors like which water supplies have been contaminated and how much immunity the population has to the disease.

They predict the number of cholera cases will be substantially higher than official estimates.

"The epidemic is not likely to be short-term," said Dr Basu. "It is going to be larger than predicted in terms of sheer numbers and will last far longer than the initial projections."

But the researchers say thousands of lives could be saved by provision of clean water, vaccination and expanded access to antibiotics.

A spokesman for the World Health Organization said: "We have to be cautious because modelling does not necessarily reflect what's seen on the ground.

"Latest figures show there have been 252,640 cases and 4,672 deaths as of 10 March 2011.

— "Haiti cholera 'far worse than expected', experts fear"