bcholmes: (politics)
[personal profile] bcholmes

But, by next year, the Liberals will have a new leader who will be much more popular than Mr. Dion. There is likely to be a deepening, American-induced recession. Circumstances for the Prime Minister will be twice as tough as they were in this campaign. Stephen Harper will take the hint, behold declining poll numbers, realize the Big Win isn't there, and step out gracefully - as a great builder of the party and as a winner. He won't make the mistake that so many do, hanging on for glory's last shot and falling in the process.

On Tuesday, despite all the factors working in his favour, he increased his party's popular vote by only 1 percentage point. He was running behind his party in popularity by the end of the campaign. He has had three election attempts. His best hope would have been for Mr. Dion to stay on, but he took away that possibility by inflicting so much damage on the Liberal captain.

"The forecast: Dion out by year's end, Harper before the next vote".

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BC Holmes

February 2025

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