Aristide in Haiti on Thursday?

PORT-AU-PRINCE — Ex-president Jean-Bertrand Aristide is to end seven years in exile in South Africa and return to Haiti Thursday, three days ahead of a presidential run-off election, a source told AFP.

"Aristide is expected this Thursday in Port-au-Prince," the source, close to the three-time former president, said on condition of anonymity.

The United States has urged Aristide to postpone his return until after Sunday's vital presidential run-off.

November's first-round election was marred by violence and fraud and the shattered country is still struggling to rebuild after a devastating earthquake 14 months ago that killed some 250,000 people.

— AFP

A few days ago, the Obama administration asked South Africa to refuse to allow Aristide's departure until after the election. I guess we're going to see how this pans out.

Thirdness and Haiti

A runoff between two neo-Duvalierist candidates: former First Lady Mirlande Manigat and former konpa musician Michel "Sweet Micky" Martelly. The problem? The election is illegal. Only four of the eight-member Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) have voted to proceed with the second round, one short of the five necessary. Furthermore, the first round results have not been published in the journal of record, Le Moniteur, and President René Préval has not officially convoked Haitians to vote – both constitutional requirements.

"In this election, it is the United Nations and Organisation of American States [OAS], both acting on Washington's behalf, who are convoking the people to vote for the candidates whom they have designated," a grassroots organiser told Haïti Liberté. (Last month, the OAS forced the CEP – constitutionally, the "final arbiter" of Haitian elections – to replace Jude Célestin, the candidate of Préval's party, with Martelly in the runoff.)

— "Haiti wants Aristide: let him go", The Guardian

I often feel like I have to try to talk about "least worst" options when it comes to Haiti. I mean, the elections are a classic example.

First: they shouldn't have happened, in the wake of the earthquake. I don't know of any Haitian organizations asking for elections. Secretary Clinton pressured the current government to hold the elections because the international community wants a more pliant government in place before it starts dispersing aid.

Second: I've lost a huge buttload of respect, over the years, for the Préval government. I don't think that they speak for the people. And I think that Préval manoeuvred the CEP to keep Fanmi Lavalas out, and make his party more likely to win. To be clear: I strongly suspect that he was pressured by the international community on that first point, but at the end of the day, he went along with it. (I'm a little bit sympathetic to his position: what do you do when you know that the last guy who had your job was subjected to two coups and countless assassination attempts?) But it's also clear that the last election was rigged, and that can't be overlooked.

Third: To have the international community force Préval to withdraw Jude Célestin really strips away any pretense that Haiti has anything resembling sovereignty. Personally: I think that if the international community wanted free and fair elections in Haiti, they should have made these objections when Fanmi Lavalas was excluded. But, hey, that was an irregularity that they preferred (and, as I said, I suspect that they pushed for it)..

So now, this weekend, we're going to have an election that most of the country doesn't believe in, to choose one of two centre-right politicians. These are the choices being offered to Haitians. And it's not like they haven't made their preferences very clear.

A big theme of Aristide's book, Eyes of the Heart is this central question: how do you choose between death and death? And Aristide doesn't talk about "least worst". He says that there's something peculiarly Haitian that always finds a third way. This is part of why I think Aristide is needed, now.