Election Time?

[bcholmes]

I'm finding the political reporting very strange at the moment, what with all the talk about election possibilities. Several weeks ago, there was a poll that said that the Liberals' popularity had dropped dramatically. Their approval rating had hit 27%, and the Conservatives could try to force an election. Buried in the article was the detail that the Conservatives' approval rating was 30%.

Think about that. Big sponsorship scandal. Liberals accused of siphoning money out of the federal coffers. The political repercussion is that we now think that they're marginally worse than the Conservatives.

Angus Reid has recently polled about who would make a better Prime Minister. 26% of Canadians think that Liberal Paul Martin is the best choice. This is the guy who was Finance Minister during the time of the sponsorship abuses. 25% say Conservative Stephen Harper. The headline? "Harper Close to Martin as Canada's Preferred PM." That's right. Our perception of Harper is almost as good as our perception of a shifty, untrustworthy Liberal leader. And the media is reporting, endlessly, that this is a huge win for the Conservatives.

Which, I think, really says something about the standing of the Conservative party in Canada. They're liked almost as much as the Liberals when the Liberals are at their worst.

And I don't really have much of a problem with this because a Conservative government is a horrible, horrible thought. I want the party to remain devastated as punishment for Mulroney.

I spend time thinking: okay, suppose we learn the worst about the Liberals. Suppose it becomes clear that most of the major names in the Liberal party are complicit in the sponsorship scandal. Suppose it is shown that they're crooked, crooked, crooked. Would I want the Conservatives to defeat them in an election to teach them a lesson? No. 'Cause, y'know, greed is one thing, but the Conservatives are just souless.

Election strategy: the Conservatives will keep Alberta. The Bloc, already holding most of the Quebec seats, will probably pick up more. I don't know what will happen in British Columbia; probably go mostly Liberal. To really do well in the next election, the Conservatives and the Liberals both need to woo Ontario. And Paul Martin has to reverse a year of pissing all over Ontario (Liberal) Premier Dalton McGuinty, but Harper has to convince Ontario that he's not Mulroney, and he's not Mike Harris and he's not Stockwell Day. And I think he's already lost that war.

I hope it's true: that this is as good as it gets for the Conservatives.